Despite numerous public-spirited and high-minded offers from the Brexit Party to the Conservatives to enter an electoral pact as some form of Leave Alliance, the formation of such a pact looks unlikely ahead of any general election. There is consequently concern that the Conservatives and the Brexit Party will split the Leave vote, leading to Remain candidates winning in places they shouldn’t and then conceivably a Corbyn government – which both parties certainly do not want. This actually doesn’t do justice to the subtleties and nuances of our constituency by constituency electoral system. Each constituency needs to be looked at on a case by case basis. It is a valuable exercise to carry out the following analysis.
In North Dorset, the constituency I am seeking to represent for the Brexit Party at the next General Election, the arch-Remainer Conservative incumbent, who has done nothing but sabotage Brexit for the past three years, obtained 36,169 votes in 2017 (source: electionresults.parliament.uk), with Labour in second place then with 10,392 and the Lib-Dems in third with 7,556. If at the next election I was to take half the Conservative vote 18,085 (and one more than the Conservative candidate), even combining the Labour and Lib-Dem votes (highly unlikely, given their different but varyingly unprincipled positions on Brexit) does not get you to that figure. Only 17,948 vs 18,085 – any Lib-Lab-Remain melange is still likely to come a distant third in North Dorset. Leave wins, even where the Brexit Party takes half the Conservative vote.
A vote cast in a UK General Election is not a vote cast for the party leader, however “presidential” the campaign is that they run, or indeed for a party. Strictly, each vote in a constituency is a vote for an individual candidate on the ballot paper in their own right. This feature of our electoral system is the very reason the likes of Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston, Heidi Allen and Chuka Umunna, to name but a few, do not feel compelled to hold by-elections when they change parties. It may be shameful, disgraceful and in dire need of reform, but it is the electorally legal position. To get Brexit done, it will be preferable to have Brexiteers in Parliament and not Remainers pretending to want to get it done as they have been doing for the past three years. A General Election is a time to change the complexion of our MPs returned to Parliament for good, and an opportunity to clear out the delayers, the thwarters, the obstructors and the saboteurs from the Parliament of the last three years.
Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for the North Dorset Constituency
The Brexit Party
83 Victoria Street
London SW1H 0HW